From Elements to Effects: The Strategic Imperative to Understand "National Cyber Power"

Abstract

Increases in the use of Artificial Intelligence in industry, government, military, and daily life have brought cyber challenges and concerns to the fore. Each new development in disruptive technology broadens the attack surface for cyber-attacks and the necessity for cyber defense. The increased use of automation during and after the COVID-19 Pandemic has incentivized activity by state, non-state, and criminal actors in the cyber realm. An exponential increase in the use of Artificial Intelligence has brought along with it a requirement for data and energy for storage, access, and computing. Many nations have written strategic documents and strategies for dealing with national “cyber power”, a term that is multifaceted and reaches beyond the traditional “cyber” realm. Current national cyber strategies over-emphasize cybersecurity and under-emphasize the structural elements behind cyber power, such as energy resources and data availability. Further, they are written to address one small aspect of national cyber power as defined by common indices, resulting in a fractured and de-synced national strategic approach to gaining national cyber power. In an era of AI ubiquity, strategic leaders need to make sound decisions about how to invest in the most critical areas to defend, maintain, and grow cyber power. Therefore, national cyber strategies should examine the full requirements for national cyber power.  This paper will examine the critical components of a definition of “national cyber power” through a literature review of various national cyber security strategies and policy documents from various countries, think tank reports on cyber strategy, industry reports and white papers, and meta-analyses on cyber power and cyber capabilities. We examine the current and expected future trends in technology and how those are likely to shape the strategic environment. Finally, from this body of knowledge, we propose new considerations to retool strategic cyber documents.