Cyber Operations and the Threshold for Cyber Warfare: Ethical and Anticipated Ethical Issues

Abstract

Determining whether a cyber operation meets the threshold for being designated cyber warfare involves ethical, technical, and strategic criteria. These are primarily derived from international law frameworks such as the Tallinn Manual 2.0 and principles of the UN Charter. What are the primary criteria for cyber operations to be called acts of Cyber Warfare Threshold? (1). Scale and Effects of cyber operations. The cyber operation must cause effects comparable to a kinetic attack, such as: Physical destruction (e.g., damaging power plants, pipelines). Loss of life or serious injury. Severe disruption of essential services (power, water, healthcare). Example: Stuxnet physically damaged Iranian centrifuges, meeting this criterion. (2). The Intent and Purpose of the Cyber Operation. The cyber-attack must be strategically motivated and aimed at: Weakening an adversary’s military or economic capability, Coercing or punish a state. Achieving political or military objectives. Example: Ukraine power grid attacks were linked to geopolitical conflict. (3) Cyber operation must be attributed to a State. The cyber operation must be attributable to a state or conducted under its direction/control. State sponsorship or direct involvement elevates an attack from the level of being a cybercrime to the level of acts of cyber warfare. Example: WannaCry and NotPetya were attributed to North Korea and Russia respectively. (4) There must be severity and consequences related to cyber operations. The impact of cyber operation must be significant enough to trigger international legal obligations, such as a Breach of sovereignty. The possible classification of the cyber operation as a “use of force” under Article 2(4) of the UN Charter. Example: Triton/Trisis targeted safety systems in petrochemical plants, risking catastrophic damage. (5) The Target Type of cyber operation. Attacks by the cyber operation on critical infrastructure or military systems are more likely to meet the threshold. Civilian systems may also qualify if disruption is widespread and severe. (6) The Context and Scale of the cyber operation. The cumulative effects of cyber operations mean that: repeated or coordinated attacks may collectively meet the threshold even if individual cyber operations do not. This analysis will identify the ethical and anticipated ethical issues with the identification of Cyber Operations and the ethical criteria for these operations to reach the threshold for being classified as acts of Cyber Warfare. Our methodology will employ an interdisciplinary method that draws upon distinctions taken from Bratman’s BDI Model of rational agency, computer science, and conceptual ethical analysis with reference to specific case studies.