Envisioning New Ways to Use Economic Sanctions and Weaponisation in the Future

Abstract

According to Clausewitz, war is a continuation of politics by different means (Clausewitz, 1832). The most common method of waging war is to utilise military force; however, other tools are being increasingly employed to persuade the opponent. War is progressively fought using means beyond military action, also targeting societies rather than solely the armies on the battlefield (Gerasimov, 2013; Galeotti, 2022). Economic sanctions and weaponisation are instruments employed to target societies during warfare. This study examines the evolution of economic sanctions and weaponisation and their potential future use. It also explores the mechanisms by which sanctions are designed to function and the conditions under which they prove effective. As sanctions progress over time, a key question remains: What type of economic sanctions might we anticipate, and how could weaponisation be employed in the future? To answer this question, a science fiction tool by Hiltunen and Huhtinen, (2022) is used to create scenarios of how the enemy could use economic sanctions and weaponization in technologically dependent societies of the future. The study aims to assess whether such a tool can generate new insights into the future effects of economic sanctions and weaponisation in a technology-dependent society. This article describes two scenarios that show how different sanctions and weaponisation can affect specific technologies. It highlights that by assessing society's critical functions and the technologies required to support these functions, vulnerabilities can be pinpointed—vulnerabilities that an adversary may exploit. From there, effective strategies can be devised to lessen the impact of economic sanctions and weaponisation. This paper holds importance as it proposes that innovative science fiction tools can be instrumental in reflecting on the future of economic sanctions and weaponising. Often perceived solely as entertainment, science fiction possesses the ability to explore diverse strategies regarding future warfare. Furthermore, the paper develops various sci-fi scenarios to analyse the weaknesses of a society reliant on technology.