Sentiment Analysis for Defence Ecosystem and Armed Forces

Abstract

Today's battlefields extend far beyond physical terrain into the digital realm, where military operations are won or lost through the power of perception. This research dives deep into how Sentiment Analysis (SA) has become a game-changing intelligence asset for modern defence operations. When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, an extraordinary sentiment shift among Ukrainians was observed in the public opinion. Analysis of public discourse on social media revealed a substantial transformation throughout the war with initial support for negotiations gradually giving way to increased resolve for continued resistance. This fundamentally altered the geopolitical understanding of Russia Ukraine war and brought about a significant pivot in military planning and diplomatic approaches. On 28 February 2025, three years later, an interaction between the President of United States, Donald Trump and Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky spiralled into a heated confrontation and a very public spat. One of the many fall outs of this incident was the significant spike in President Zelensky’s approval ratings (69%) in Ukraine. This dramatic reversal, having deeply altered modern political outlook and military planning, has compelled strategists to rethink the brass tacks. The strategic impact of SA on conduct of military operations was further cemented during the Israel-Hamas conflict, where Israeli forces analysed over 400,000 Reddit conversations to identify emotional flashpoints and counter misinformation before it gained traction. The relevance of SA can be established by the statements of an anonymous Israeli intelligence officer: "The temperature of online conversations now matters as much as satellite imagery in modern warfare." As the operational landscape becomes increasingly asymmetrical the application of sentiment analysis in contemporary geopolitical theatres emerges as a substantial force multiplier, allowing defence strategies to shorten the OODA (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) loop significantly. From Afghanistan to the South China Sea, military commanders increasingly rely on sentiment data to navigate complex operational environments. Integrating SA in the overall military decision making process will enable the armed forces to conduct proactive information dominance, neutralise adversarial narrative warfare and enhance strategic situational awareness. By dynamically recalibrating mission critical communication strategies, SA will transform from a passive intelligence tool to an active psychological operations (PsyOps) force multiplier. These capabilities allow military commanders to model potential adversarial decision trees, simulate cognitive reaction scenarios and develop multidimensional contingency frameworks that proactively neutralise emerging operational risks before they materialise in kinetic domains. This research unveils the strategic significance of SA as a paradigm shifting intelligence capability that redefines the modern battlespaces, demonstrating how armed forces that incorporate this will gain decisive advantages in both, battlefield operations and the equally crucial battle for public support. Defence Ecosystems and Armed Forces that master this emerging intelligence frontier can and will secure decisive advantages both across kinetic and informational domains.