Understanding the Dynamics of the Cyber Grey Zone: A Conceptual Framework

Abstract

Cyberspace has become a domain for state and non-state actors to engage in activities that operate in the area between peace and conflict, often referred to as the “grey zone.” These activities, which range from legal to illegal, exploit the lack of thresholds and norms, creating challenges for understanding impact and managing consequences. This research examines the complexities of cyberspace and grey zone activities, which operate between peace and wartime, using activities ranging from legality to illegality. Addressing the lack of clarity in understanding their impact and management, the study introduces a five-block framework to systematically analyse and triage these activities. The blocks – i) Incident, ii) Technical Analysis, iii) Strategic Context, iv) Operational Preparation, v) Legality and Political Will. This structured approach enables a comprehensive breakdown of situations, assessing strategic significance and providing a benchmark for evaluating proximity to thresholds. The framework is designed to assist policymakers, strategists, and cybersecurity professionals in navigating the complexities of grey zone activities in cyberspace. This study contributes to developing more effective responses to ambiguous and evolving threats by offering a tool for informed decision-making.