Assessing Non-Kinetic Effects in Support of Military Operations: An Inference-Driven Framework

Abstract

Modern military operations increasingly integrate non-kinetic effects to support and enhance kinetic operations on the battlefield. Intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance assets provide a reliable means to measure kinetic effects on adversaries during combat. However, there is a gap in intelligence collection for assessing and quantifying non-kinetic effects, such as shaping perceptions, influencing decision-makers, or degrading adversary morale. These effects are difficult to measure with traditional intelligence techniques because they occur in the cognitive dimension, where observable indicators are limited, and measurement is complex. This limitation introduces operational risks for military leaders, as they cannot always be sure whether a non-kinetic asset will achieve the desired effect or if a behavioural change has taken place. This paper introduces a framework for developing measures of effectiveness for cyber, information warfare, and psychological operations planners to evaluate non-kinetic operations supporting kinetic actions. Drawing on case studies such as the Russo-Georgian conflict and the Second Nagorno-Karabakh war, the framework combines intelligence indicators from OSINT, social media analytics, changes in adversary leadership behaviour, shifts in military posture, and other measurable phenomena to generate quantifiable metrics. It also considers collateral, second-, and third-order effects to assess whether non-kinetic operations are achieving their operational objectives. By offering intelligence analysts, planners, and military leaders a rigorous method for planning, executing, and evaluating non-lethal effects, this approach improves effect synchronization, enhances risk assessment, and aids leaders' decision-making.