Warfare in the Gray Zone: The Need for a Western Paradigm Shift

Authors

  • Austin Carter Naval Postgraduate School
  • Timothy Shives Naval Postgraduate School

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.34190/eccws.25.1.4698

Keywords:

Unrestricted warfare, Gray zone conflict, Cognitive and information warfare, Non-kinetic deterrence, China, Three warfares, Strategic culture, U.S. doctrine

Abstract

This paper examines how China’s historical strategic culture informs the development of its information warfare doctrine and identifies the changes required for the United States to adapt. China’s contemporary approach to warfare extends beyond the traditional battlefield, integrating information, cognitive, and influence operations as central components of strategic competition. China’s strategic culture draws on classical and modern foundations, including Sun Tzu’s emphasis on deception (Sawyer, 1994), Mao Zedong’s theory of protracted conflict (Mao, 1938), and the concept of Unrestricted Warfare (Qiao & Wang, 1999). This study traces the institutionalization of the Three Warfares doctrine and the establishment of the Strategic Support Force, illustrating their application through case analysis in the South China Sea and Pacific Islands. The findings highlight key U.S. strategic vulnerabilities, particularly the continued treatment of information operations as peripheral rather than central to national strategy.

Author Biographies

Austin Carter, Naval Postgraduate School

Austin Carter is an Officer in the United States Marine Corps and a student at the Naval Postgraduate School. He is studying in the Information Systems Technology and Applied Cyber Operations programs at the school. Austin Carter's primary research interest revolves around cyber security and emerging technologies.

Timothy Shives, Naval Postgraduate School

Dr. Timothy Shives is a Professor of Practice in the Information Sciences Department at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS), Monterey, California, where he teaches and advises in cyber operations, information warfare, and cyber mission planning. He holds doctoral and master’s degrees in education, information technology management, business administration, and national security studies. He also serves as a Lieutenant Colonel in the U.S. Marine Corps Reserve and has held multiple DoD cyber and IT leadership roles. His research focuses on information warfare, cyber operations, cyber strategy and policy military decision-making, and military command and control.

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Published

2026-06-15