Geopolitical Risks: Threats or Opportunities in Shaping Entrepreneurial Intentions?

Abstract

Geopolitical risks have intensified globally, creating both challenges and opportunities for entrepreneurs. This study examines the impact of geopolitical risk on entrepreneurial intentions using the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) as a framework. Through an analysis of attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioural control, this research seeks to understand how individuals perceive and navigate uncertainty in a volatile global landscape. The focus of the study is specifically on young entrepreneurs and business students in Cyprus, a region of strategic geopolitical importance situated at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. A qualitative methodology was employed, utilizing focus groups to capture insights into how geopolitical risks influence entrepreneurial decision-making. The findings reveal that geopolitical risks impact entrepreneurship by reshaping market conditions, altering access to resources, and driving innovation in response to uncertainty. While geopolitical turbulence creates barriers such as supply chain disruptions, inflationary pressures, and investment uncertainty, it also generates opportunities, particularly in technology-driven sectors. Attitudes toward risk and resilience, social expectations, and perceived control over external challenges play a crucial role in shaping entrepreneurial intentions. The study contributes to the understanding of entrepreneurship in unstable environments and provides insights for policymakers and business educators on fostering resilience and opportunity recognition in high-risk contexts.