Understanding Entrepreneurial Intentions: A Mediation Model of Self-Efficacy, Gender, and Role Models

Abstract

Entrepreneurial intentions are critical precursors to entrepreneurial action, yet the psychological and social mechanisms that underpin intention formation remain underexplored, particularly in integrated empirical models. Drawing on a nationally representative sample from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) Adult Population Survey from Finland, this study examines how entrepreneurial self-efficacy mediates the effects of gender and exposure to entrepreneurial role models on entrepreneurial intentions. Entrepreneurial self-efficacy refers to individuals’ beliefs in their ability to successfully perform the tasks required to start and run a business. The analysis focuses on individuals aged 18–64 who were not currently engaged in entrepreneurial activity (n = 1,264). We apply structural equation modeling as a path-analytic framework to estimate direct and indirect relationships among gender, role model exposure, self-efficacy, and entrepreneurial intentions. Given the dichotomous nature of the variables, the results are interpreted as associations rather than causal effects. Indirect effects are assessed using bootstrapped confidence intervals. The results indicate a very good model fit (CFI > .98, RMSEA < .04), suggesting that the hypothesised relationships are well supported by the data. Entrepreneurial self-efficacy emerges as the strongest predictor of entrepreneurial intentions among the variables included in the model and mediates part of the effects of both gender and role model exposure. Individuals with higher self-efficacy report stronger entrepreneurial intentions, and this confidence partly explains why men and those with entrepreneurial contacts exhibit higher intentions. At the same time, both gender and role model exposure retain significant direct effects, indicating that social context influences entrepreneurial intentions beyond individual beliefs alone. These findings highlight the importance of integrating psychological and social determinants in models of entrepreneurial intention formation. By examining mediation mechanisms within a single empirical framework, the study provides a more nuanced understanding of how gender and social exposure shape entrepreneurial intentions and offers implications for entrepreneurship education and policy.