Futures Thinking: Unlocked Possibilities for Business Model Innovation in VUCA World

Abstract

The Futures are elusive and intangible. This constrains companies' capabilities to successfully plan and implement Future proof business models. In the process of making future projections, organizations often adopt forecasting and decision-making merely based on historical performance data or short-sighted future outlooks. Previous research on business model innovation has created a wide understanding of this complicated topic from different viewpoints, yet there is still room for academic discussion on the possibilities in combining futures thinking and corporate foresight within these innovation processes. Using qualitative research design, with 24 interviews and co-creational Futures workshop with 15 participants, this study examines how Hospitality Field companies are using Futures Thinking in their Business Model Innovation activities. Central research question in this study is: How Futures Thinking can support Hospitality Field companies in designing future proof Business Models? Practitioners in managerial positions encounter numerous challenges in decision-making in VUCA environment. Findings indicate two main barriers to adaptation of Futures Thinking. A primary barrier is lack of general understanding of this topic and its possibilities. Furthermore, the financial resources needed to support the costs associated with Futures Thinking platforms, materials, and professional orchestration and facilitation remain undefined. Based on the findings, a Futures Thinking and Business Model Innovation process model was designed to explain how these may be combined. This process model illustrates the action movement that is critical to enhance future business innovation. There are five business development stages: 1) environmental scanning, 2) vision formulation, 3) knowledge alignment, 4) innovation implementation and 5) feedback and iteration. This paper shows that in a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous VUCA business environment, envisioning plausible, probable, possible and/or preferred Futures is a necessity. To overcome organizational inertia and to engage in Futures Thinking initiatives, companies must effectively leverage qualities such as open-mindedness, strategic agility, and commitment to continuous learning and knowledge creation and sharing.