Countering Hindsight Bias and Memory Decay During Debriefing Through Dual-Track Simulation Game Design

Abstract

The effectiveness of simulation-based learning is influenced by the quality of debriefing and post-simulation reflection. Most debriefs are conducted at the end of a game-based learning exercise, with a facilitator asking learners guided questions to reflect on their actions during gameplay, the rationale for their decisions, and the outcomes achieved. Since the authentic reasons behind decisions are not faithfully captured during gameplay, the learner's account of those reasons is affected by hindsight bias and memory decay. This study examines whether documenting the decision rationale (Concurrent Decision Logging, or CDL) before outcome disclosure in a simulation-based game alters participants' reasoning and subsequent explanations of their decisions. The Lemonade Lane simulation, a purpose-built five-round business simulation game, was played by 41 participants, randomly assigned to either a control group (n=23), who did not record their reasoning before seeing outcomes, or a research group (n=18), who documented their rationale before seeing each round's results. Three statistically significant differences were observed: (1) The logging group adjusted pricing more dynamically across rounds; (2) When prompted to explain their worst round post-game, loggers provided longer responses and named more distinct causal factors; (3) We used NLP analysis to compare each logger's notes before seeing the outcome with their explanations after the game for their worst round. We found that loggers showed a consistent tendency to shift from blaming outside factors to blaming themselves.  Our findings suggest that integrating decision logging (CDL) into simulation-based games creates thinking patterns and evidence that can help facilitators mitigate the impact of hindsight bias during reflection. CDL leads to deeper, more detailed, and self-critical post-simulation reflection. This approach offers a practical step for designers seeking to enhance learning outcomes in game-based environments. These findings position CDL as a low-cost, scalable design intervention for practitioners seeking to amplify the pedagogical value of simulation-based games.