Entertainment Tourism Model: International Mega-Events as Driver of Tourism

Abstract

Tourism is an integral driver of economic productivity. Using international arrivals as a link to national income, this study examines whether mega-events defined as large-scale cultural, music, sports, and trade shows can serve as predictors of foreign tourist arrivals. While previous literature has emphasized the importance of events in shaping destination image and competitiveness, few studies have examined their predictive value across multiple countries and years. This research addresses that gap by compiling a new dataset from 82 countries. Event counts were collected for the years 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2023, while UNWTO validated 2024 international arrivals were used as the dependent variable. The pandemic years were deliberately excluded to avoid distortions and irregularities in both tourism flows and event programming. The study applied a quantitative, ex-post-facto research design, relying on secondary data drawn from international databases and validated institutional reports. The sample size of 82 was consistent with accepted regression requirements under Green’s formula, ensuring reliability of results. Multiple regression analysis was conducted in SPSS to test the predictive strength of each event category. Results show that the model explains 28.1% of the variance in international arrivals (Adjusted R² = 0.243). Among the predictors, only music events produced a statistically significant effect, indicating that each additional large music concert or festival is associated with roughly 1.7 million more arrivals. Sports events showed a positive but non-significant effect, while cultural festivals and trade shows contributed little within the model. Moreover, the findings underscore the significance of event-led tourism strategies and the necessity for governments to view events as measurable policy instruments, rather than isolated cultural activities. By presenting a mathematical model grounded in cross-country data, this study provides policymakers with an evidence-based framework to guide investment, prioritize event categories with the strongest outcomes, and support long-term tourism planning and national development goals.